Resilience Risk Screening

Roads at High

—

of 658 named roads

Peak window

—

district-wide, worst step

District position

—

vs 5-yr record

Evidence coverage

—

roads with flood history on file

Mechanism

Window −5 d +5 d now

Beyond record High Elevated Below median — no assertion flood history on file

Posture set by the duty manager, not by the model. Screening prompts a review when a road crosses a band; it never sets the posture itself.

Road risk

now

Road	Band	vs record	Next 5 d
loading network…

Road

Band

vs record

Next 5 d

loading network…

What these bands mean

A road's band is its position against the nearest gauges' own five-year records — 72-hour rainfall and antecedent wetness combined into one number, interpolated from the three nearest gauges. The boundaries are the same contours drawn on the Qualifier and Forward plots, so an amber road and an amber dot mean the same thing.

Below the median event< 50%

Elevated50–75%

High75–100%

Beyond the record> 100%

Roads with recorded flood closures reach a band earlier, in proportion to how often they have closed. The percentage shown is always the honest hazard figure — it is the boundary that moves, and the tooltip says by how much.

threshold alerts to the duty manager and contractors — module M10

This is a rarity screen, not a closure prediction. A road reads High when conditions at the nearest gauges are approaching the worst that those gauges have recorded in five years — not because a model expects it to close. Colouring is interpolated between twelve rain gauges and carries no catchment, slope or drainage term; that arrives with the per-link forecast layer (M2). Roads with no recorded flood history are drawn neutral rather than green: the absence of a record is not evidence of safety. MetService remains the authoritative source for weather warnings.